Product substitutability in the nicotine market – from plug tobacco to bio-ceramic nicotine pouches

Synopsis for my presentation: In Scandinavia, bio-ceramic tobacco-free nicotine pouches have become the very latest supplement to the nicotine market. However, over the past century, various nicotine products have had successive time-limited periods of market dominance. Plug tobacco for chewing at the start of the century was replaced by pipe smoking from the 1930s, which in turn was replaced by rolling tobacco as the dominant method of use from the 1960s. From the 1980s followed some decades where varieties of manufactured cigarettes (plain, filter, light) dominated the market, only to be replaced by varieties of tobacco-based snus (loose, portions) for oral use from 2015. More recently, tobacco-free cellulose-based nicotine pouches (white snus) have started to outcompete the traditional types of (brown) snus. In addition, non-combustible inhalation products (vapes & heated tobacco) have gained some market share without achieving dominance in the Nordics. This historic product substitutability illustrates the correctness of Professor Michael Russell’s statement in 1971 “One nicotine product has never left the market without being replaced by another”. Neither corporal, economic and social punishment of the users, nor the wide range of supply- and demand regulations (including prohibition) have succeeded in eliminating the appetite for recreational use of nicotine. Starting with a brief historical analysis of the historic development of the nicotine market, we will subsequently narrow our focus on nicotine pouches; the current market situation, the inconsistent international regulations, the assumed harm potential, usage patterns and.…all the knowledge gaps.